Solar Eclipse Climate & Weather Data

Solar Eclipse Weather Prospects

Choosing Your Observing Location

Where's the best place to go in North America to see the annular solar eclipse on October 14, 2023? What about the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024? There's no single right answer in either case. Within the constraints of available time and money, experienced eclipse chasers will aim to strike a balance among three factors:

  1. Duration of totality or annularity — There's so much to see during a total solar eclipse that every second counts. The longer the Moon completely covers the Sun, the more your eyes will get used to the dark and the more of the Sun's faint outer corona you'll see. You'll also have more time to look for bright stars and planets, to enjoy the sunrise/sunset colors around the horizon, and — if you're so inclined — to shoot pictures. Totality always lasts longer along the center of the path of the Moon's shadow than it does near the edge, and on April 8, 2024, totality lasts longer in Mexico and Texas than it does further to the northeast. The duration of annularity is less critical, since there's so much less to see than during a total solar eclipse, but the longer it lasts, the more time you'll have to admire the "ring of fire" and snap some photos through your safely filtered camera.
  2. Local accommodations, amenities, and attractions — The ideal observing site is accessible, safe, and secure with convenient food, water, and restrooms. But there are other things to think about too. Do you want to experience the eclipse in relative seclusion or in a big crowd? Do you want to take a short trip just to see the eclipse, or do you plan to make a vacation of it and spend extra time sightseeing in the area? Between them, the paths of the October 2023 annular and April 2024 total solar eclipses cross Mexico, parts of 20 U.S. states, and parts of Eastern Canada, so your options run the gamut from big cities to small towns and from national parks to neighborhood playgrounds.
  3. Likelihood of clear skies — No matter how close you are to the center of the path or the point of maximum duration, you won't experience the "ring of fire" in on October 14, 2023, nor the many splendors of totality on April 8, 2024, if it's cloudy or raining. If you have the flexibility to travel, it makes sense to aim for a spot where you're likely to have a clear sky based on historical data. But just as stock-market investors say, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results," eclipse chasers say, "Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get." So keep your eye on the weather forecast in the days leading up to the eclipse, and have a Plan B in case you need it.

Eclipsophile: Climate and Weather for Celestial Events

There are many sources of excellent maps that show where annularity or totality happen and how long they last at various locations. But how do you figure the likelihood of clear skies at any point within the eclipse path, especially months or weeks in advance? You ask Jay Anderson, a Canadian meteorologist and eclipse chaser who has been the "go-to guy" for eclipse climatology and weather forecasting for the past several decades, just as his colleague and co-author Fred Espenak has been the "go-to guy" for eclipse path predictions; their latest book together, Eclipse Bulletin: Total Solar Eclipse of 2024 April 08, is listed on our Books & Articles page. (They haven't produced an eclipse bulletin for the annular eclipse, but Jay's analysis of weather prospects for October 14, 2023, is linked below.)

Fortunately you don't have to know Jay Anderson personally to get his advice on where to find clear skies on Eclipse Day. He and his colleague Jennifer West maintain the Eclipsophile website, which all experienced eclipse chasers have bookmarked. Thank you, Jay, for the remarkable service you have been providing to eclipse chasers for so long!

Key pages from the Eclipsophile website:

As each eclipse approaches, Jay and Jennifer add links where you can find satellite imagery and numerical weather models ahead of eclipse day to aid in your planning and final site selection:

You've probably heard that we may have an El Niño in the time frame of these two eclipses. El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures along the equator are significantly warmer than usual for an extended period. As of late northern summer 2023, equatorial ocean temperatures are more than 1°C above normal, and there's an estimated 90% chance of this pattern continuing into winter and becoming a full-fledged El Niño. Eclipse enthusiasts are asking, “What’s El Niño going to do to the cloud-cover prospects in April?” Jay Anderson's answer appears on Sky & Telescope's website; see his article "El Niño and the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse." Bottom line: El Niño generally increases the likelihood of clear skies in places where it's already relatively high (e.g., Mexico, Texas) but doesn't help as much for places where statistical prospects for clear skies are relatively low.

Other Eclipse-Related Climate & Weather Resources

For a different approach to displaying the likelihood of clear skies on October 14, 2023, see the following resource from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):

We trust that NEIC and NOAA will collaborate to produce a similar resource for the April 8, 2024, total solar eclipse; if/when they do, we'll link to it here.

And here are some maps of historical weather data for the April 8, 2024, total solar eclipse across the U.S. mainland, prepared by Alaskan climatologist Brian Brettschneider for the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS), another part of NOAA, using data from 1979-2022. Each map appears in three versions: all years, El Niño years only, and a half-size animated GIF that switches between the two to facilitate easy comparison:

Weather Forecasts for Stargazers

Solar eclipses occur only at new Moon, so on the nights around the time of a solar eclipse, there's little or no moonlight to brighten the sky. If you've gone to a remote, dark-sky location to view the solar eclipse, and especially if you've brought binoculars and/or a telescope, you'll likely want to do some stargazing every clear night. Experienced observers know that there's more to a great night of stargazing than cloud-free skies. The air has to be very steady to permit sharp telescopic views; astronomers call this "good seeing." The air needs to be clear of smoke and haze, too; astronomers call this "good transparency."

How can you tell if tonight's conditions will be excellent, good, or just tolerable for stargazing? You can consult a weather forecast specifically designed for stargazers! Some are available online, some are available via apps for your mobile device, and some are available both ways. Here are the ones we use most often:

  • Astrospheric
    • Developed by Daniel Fiordalis of Astrospheric, LLC, this site is so much more than an astronomical weather forecast; it provides a huge amount of information and a wide variety of tools for stargazers and astrophotographers in the United States and Canada. Among its many features are interactive maps of the October 2023 and April 2024 solar eclipses. Also available: mobile apps for Apple/iOS and Google/Android devices.
  • Clear Sky Chart
    • Produced by Canadian amateur astronomer and software architect Attilla Danko, this site offers detailed 48-hour predictions for cloud cover, seeing, and transparency for locations in the United States, Canada, and parts of Mexico.

    General-Purpose Weather Forecasts

    There are many sites on the internet that will show you the current weather at any location on Earth along with a short-term (usually 5- to 10-day) forecast. Many have companion apps available for smartphones and tablets. Among them:

    These will become more useful as we get closer to the eclipses. Here's another site that isn't on most people's radar (pardon the pun) but that could be especially valuable in the days leading up to each eclipse, thanks mainly to its stunning data visualizations. It was developed by the company InMeteo in the Czech Republic in collaboration with Marek Mojzík & Martin Prantl:

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